14.002 12. The Computer Wars Chronicles: ISSUE 74/ : Report from the Computer Wars V. Outcome
Description
This article is from the Apple II Csa2 FAQ, by Jeff Hurlburt with numerous contributions by others.
14.002 12. The Computer Wars Chronicles: ISSUE 74/ : Report from the Computer Wars V. Outcome
Computer Wars I did not pick a winning manufacturer; it did pick a
winning, standard platform: the "PC AT or compatible". Just look at unit sales,
the quantity, quality, and range of software releases, peripherals variety, and
newspaper/magazine advertising. The clincher is a pattern of plummeting prices,
increasing performance, and rapid adoption of cutting-edge technology. It all
adds up to the same thing: a 'standard computer'. Today, when you say
"computer", everyone knows you mean "PC".
As of summer 1990, the 'typical PC' is an 8-16MHz '286-based machine with
640K-1MB (zero wait state) RAM, 1.2 MB 5.25" floppy, and 40-60MB hard disk.
Featuring VGA color and Ad Lib sound, the system also includes "enhanced
keyboard", VGA monitor, and cards for serial & parallel I/O, disk controllers,
clock, and joystick ports-- all for about $1400. (33MHz '386 versions sell for
roughly $2000). If current trends persist, by late fall prices will have
dropped 10-15%.
Where does this leave II users? As of this spring, IIgs users sat atop a
large, divers software base. As of summer, very little has been added. While
you can reasonably expect continued releases in such areas as utilities,
languages, and education, the outlook for productivity wares is rather poor. As
for major vendor entertainment releases, don't ask! Just take last summer's
predictions and slap on a "You are Here" sticker.
Though loyal, literally, to a fault, II users are not likely to
long tolerate a situation which not only saddles them with
sub-par performance, but also shuts them out of the major vendor
software stream. Mainly, you 'won't take it any more' because you
don't have to. Look at the economics: As a IIgs owner you are
probably looking forward to a speed/graphics upgrade and the
addition of a 40-60MB hard disk. Well, at normal Apple stuff
prices (and assuming a graphics upgrade becomes available) your
planned outlay comes painfully close to the total cost of the
"typical PC AT"! This much seems clear, by next summer many
(perhaps most) II owners will also be PC users.
Doom? Gloom? The 'end of forever'? Not at all. In fact, the gruds
may have delivered what Apple only promised: practically
unlimited II continuance. One of the ironies of the present
situation is that the very forces which make taking the PC plunge
so appealing (e.g. low prices) also make dumping your IIgs stuff
unattractive. Even as the junior partner in a two-machine
installation, your IIgs is worth vastly more to you than it is
likely to sell for. (Besides, all of your records are in
Appleworks files; little Suzy just started "Dungeon Master",
etc., etc..) So long as II's remain in the hands of skilled
users there will be no lack of interest in performance
enhancements, peripherals, and new software.
The gruds may be dancing in the streets, but the biggest winner
in Computer Wars I is the computer user. Proprietary fiefdoms and
semi- monopolistic pricing are being swept away; and, for the
first time, we can look forward to a unified software base
spanning home, school, and business users. Granted, this was a
conflict that ended, not with the clash of cymbals, but the toot
of a kazoo. The big name manufacturers, assorted publications,
and many others will, naturally, try to pretend that it's
'business as usual'. It isn't. Computer Wars I is
history. Computer Wars II is a whole new ball game!
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